Knowledge-guided machine learning for disentangling Pacific sea surface temperature variability across timescales

Abstract

Global weather and climate patterns are strongly influenced by dominant modes of anomalous Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, disentangling these modes of variability remains challenging due to their spatial overlap and nonlinear coupling, which violate the assumptions of traditional linear methods. We develop a Knowledge-Guided AutoEncoder (KGAE) that uses spatiotemporal constraints and a gradient-based sparsity incentive to identify physically interpretable modes of detrended SST variability, each defined by a single broad characteristic timescale, without the need for predefined temporal filters or thresholds. The KGAE separates ENSO-like modes on 2- and 3-7-year timescales, as well as a decadal mode with characteristics reminiscent of the PDO and PMM, each with distinct spatial patterns. We perturb each latent dimension and use finite differences to characterize the state-independent and state-dependent sensitivities. We demonstrate that the decadal mode modulates ENSO diversity (central versus eastern Pacific) through both interference and nonlinear state dependence, and that a quasibiennial mode interacts with the interannual mode to characterize ENSO onset and decay. We assess the robustness of the KGAEs to random initialization and training stochasticity, to sampling bias induced by a time-stratified cross-validation scheme, and to unseen data (generalization). When applied to climate model output, KGAEs reveal model-specific biases in ENSO diversity and seasonal timing. Our results highlight how machine learning can uncover physically meaningful modes of Earth system variability and characterize their complex interactions across models and timescales.

This work has been submitted to the American Meteorological Society journal "Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems". Copyright in this Work may be transferred without further notice; 45 main-text pages, 9 main-text figures, 2 tables, 8 supplemental figures