Who Waits the Longest? Unequal Paths to Legal Stability among Migrants and Refugees

Abstract

Legal systems shape not only the recognition of migrants and refugees but also the pace and stability of their integration. Refugees often shift between multiple legal classifications, a process we refer to as the "legal journey". This journey is frequently prolonged and uncertain. Using a network-based approach, we analyze legal transitions for over 350,000 migrants in Austria (2022-2024). EU nationals such as Germans reach stable residence in under four months; refugees from conflict-affected regions face far longer and more uncertain journeys, ranging from two months for Ukrainians to nine months for Syrians and 20 months for Afghans. Refugee women, especially from Syria and Afghanistan, are more likely to gain protection. Afghan women reach stability in 14 months on average, less than half the 30 months Afghan men wait. We also find that those who cross the border without going through official border controls face higher exit rates and lower chances of securing a stable status. We show that legal integration is not a uniform process, but one structured by institutional design, entry mode, and unequal timelines.