Boundedness of average rank of elliptic curves ordered by the coefficients

Abstract

We study the average rank of elliptic curves $E_{A,B}:y^2=x^3+Ax+B$ over $\mathbb{Q}$, ordered by the height function $h(E_{A,B}):=\text{max}(|A|,|B|)$. Understanding this average rank requires estimating the number of irreducible integral binary quartic forms under the action of ${\mathrm{GL}}_2(\mathbb{Z})$, where the invariants $I$ and $J$ are bounded by $X$. A key challenge in this estimation arises from working within regions of the quartic form space that expand non-uniformly, with volume and projection of the same order. To address this, we develop a new technique for counting integral points in these regions, refining existing methods and overcoming the limitations of Davenport's lemma. This leads to a bound on the average size of the 2-Selmer group, yielding an upper bound of 1.5 for the average rank of elliptic curves ordered by $h$.

47 pages