Predicting Power Grid Failures Using Self-Organized Criticality: A Case Study of the Texas Grid 2014-2022

Abstract

This study develops a novel predictive framework for power grid vulnerability based on the statistical signatures of Self-Organized Criticality (SOC). By analyzing the evolution of the power law critical exponents in outage size distributions from the Texas grid during 2014-2022, we demonstrate the method's ability for forecasting system-wide vulnerability to catastrophic failures. Our results reveal a systematic decline in the critical exponent from 1.45 in 2018 to 0.95 in 2020, followed by a drop below the theoretical critical threshold ($\hat{I}\pm$ = 1) to 0.62 in 2021, coinciding precisely with the catastrophic February 2021 power crisis. Such predictive signal emerged 6-12 months before the crisis. By monitoring critical exponent transitions through subcritical and supercritical regimes, we provide quantitative early warning capabilities for catastrophic infrastructure failures, with significant implications for grid resilience planning, risk assessment, and emergency preparedness in increasingly stressed power systems.

Accepted for the 2025 MRS International Risk Conference in July, Boston, MA, US