paper

Modeling resource consumption in the US air transportation system via minimum-cost percolation

arXiv:2504.04245 · doi:10.1038/s41467-025-63489-w

Abstract

We introduce a dynamic percolation model aimed at describing the consumption, and eventual exhaustion, of resources in transportation networks. In the model, rational agents progressively consume the edges of a network along demanded minimum-cost paths. As a result, the network undergoes a transition between a percolating phase where it can properly serve demand to a non-percolating phase where demand can no longer be supplied. We apply the model to a weighted, directed, temporal, multi-layer network representation of the air transportation system that can be generated using real schedules of commercial flights operated by US carriers. We study how cooperation among different carriers could improve the ability of the overall air transportation system in serving the demand of passengers, finding that unrestricted cooperation could lead to a 30% efficiency increase compared to the non-cooperative scenario. Cooperation would require major airlines to share a significant portion of their market, but it would allow also for an increased robustness of the system against perturbations causing flight cancellations. Our findings underscore some key benefits that could emerge by simply promoting code-share arrangements among US airlines without altering their current cost of operation.

12 pages, 5 figures + Supplementary Material

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