Existence and non-existence of consistent estimators in supercritical controlled branching processes

Abstract

We consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a supercritical controlled branching process consistently from a single observed trajectory of population size counts. Our goal is to establish which parameters can and cannot be consistently estimated. When a parameter can be consistently estimated, we derive an explicit expression for the estimator. We address these questions in three scenarios: when the distribution of the control function distribution is known, when it is unknown, and when progenitor numbers are observed alongside population size counts. Our results offer a theoretical justification for the common practice in population ecology of estimating demographic and environmental stochasticity using separate observation schemes.

We separate proofs for non-existence and consistency results into their own sections, correct the proof of Theorem 3.5, and add proofs for Theorems 3.10 and 3.13, which had been omitted in the previous version