Crisis in time-dependent dynamical systems

Abstract

Many dynamical systems operate in a fluctuating environment. However, even in low-dimensional setups, transitions and bifurcations have not yet been fully understood. In this Letter we focus on crises, a sudden flooding of the phase space due to the crossing of the boundary of the basin of attraction. We find that crises occur also in non-autonomous systems although the underlying mechanism is more complex. We show that in the vicinity of the transition, the escape probability scales as $\exp [-\hat{I}\pm (\ln \hat{I}´{)}^2]$, where $\hat{I}´$ is the distance from the critical point, while $\hat{I}\pm$ is a model-dependent parameter. This prediction is tested and verified in a few different systems, including the Kuramoto model with inertia, where the crisis controls the loss of stability of a chimera state.

5 pages, 3 figures, accepted in Phys. Rev. Lett