Economic Impact of China's Retaliatory Soybean Tariff on U.S. Soybean Farmers

Abstract

This paper analyzes the economic impact of China's retaliatory soybean tariff on U.S. soybean farmers using advanced econometric methods and comprehensive datasets including USDA reports, trade data, and historical price movements. The analysis employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR), a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) estimation, and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, revealing the impacts of China's retaliatory tariff on soybean prices, exports, farm incomes, and acreage decisions. U.S. policy responses, including direct subsidies and market diversification strategies, are also evaluated.