Diffusion Model-based Parameter Estimation in Dynamic Power Systems

Abstract

Parameter estimation, which represents a classical inverse problem, is often ill-posed as different parameter combinations can yield identical outputs. This non-uniqueness presents a critical barrier to accurate and unique identification. Here we introduce a parameter estimation framework to address such limits: the Joint Conditional Diffusion Model-based Inverse Problem Solver. By leveraging the stochasticity of diffusion models, it produces candidate solutions that capture underlying parameter distributions conditioned on the observations. Joint conditioning on multiple observations further narrows the posterior distributions of non-identifiable parameters. For composite load model parameterization, a challenging task in dynamic power systems, the proposed method achieves a 58.6% reduction in parameter estimation error compared to the single-condition model. It also accurately replicates system's dynamic responses under various electrical faults with root mean square errors below $4\times 10^{-3}$, exhibiting comprehensive advantages in calibration and efficiency over existing methods. Given its data-driven nature, it provides a general framework for parameter estimation while effectively mitigating the non-uniqueness problem across scientific domains.

Updated to match the published version. Minor corrections incorporated

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