Inverting the operation of conditioning a branching process on extinction

Abstract

It is well-known that conditioning a supercritical (multi-type) branching process on the event that it eventually becomes extinct yields a subcritical branching process. We study the corresponding inverse problem: given a subcritical branching process, does there exist a supercritical branching process with the property that when we condition it on extinction, we get back the original subcritical branching process? We show that such a supercritical branching process (which we call a conjugate branching process) exists under mild hypotheses on the original subcritical branching process. We also show by example that if there are at least two types, then the conjugate branching process is not necessarily unique. Our results are relevant to the problem of constructing natural random planar maps whose scaling limit is given by supercritical Liouville quantum gravity. Moreover, conjugate branching processes can also be used to give alternative evolutionary hypotheses in cancer modeling.

29 pages, 3 figures

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