Finding the Fuse: Prospects for the Detection and Characterization of Hydrogen-Rich Core-Collapse Supernova Precursor Emission with the LSST

Abstract

Enhanced emission in the months to years preceding explosion has been detected for several core-collapse supernovae (SNe). Though the physical mechanisms driving the emission remain hotly debated, the light curves of detected events show long-lived ($\ge$50 days), plateau-like behavior, suggesting hydrogen recombination may significantly contribute to the total energy budget. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will provide a decade-long photometric baseline to search for this emission, both in binned pre-explosion observations after an SN is detected and in single-visit observations prior to the SN explosion. In anticipation of these searches, we simulate a range of eruptive precursor models to core-collapse SNe and forecast the discovery rates of these phenomena in LSST data. We find a detection rate of ~40-130 yr${}^{-1}$ for SN IIP/IIL precursors and ~110 yr${}^{-1}$ for SN IIn precursors in single-epoch photometry. Considering the first three years of observations with the effects of rolling and observing triplets included, this number grows to a total of 150-400 in binned photometry, with the highest number recovered when binning in 100-day bins for 2020tlf-like precursors and in 20-day bins for other recombination-driven models from the literature. We quantify the impact of using templates contaminated by residual light (from either long-lived or separate precursor emission) on these detection rates, and explore strategies for estimating baseline flux to mitigate these issues. Spectroscopic follow-up of the eruptions preceding core-collapse SNe and detected with LSST will offer important clues to the underlying drivers of terminal-stage mass loss in massive stars.

22 pages, 12 figures. Paper has been updated with additional discussion between simulated and observed precursors, and is now accepted to ApJ