Double stochastic opinion dynamics with fractional inflow of new opinions

Abstract

A recent analysis of empirical limit order flow data highlights the necessity for a more refined order flow model that integrates the power-law distribution of limit order cancellation times. These cancellation times follow a discrete probability mass function derived from the Tsallis $q$-exponential distribution, or equivalently, the second form of the Pareto distribution. By combining fractional L'{e}vy stable motion as the model for limit order inflow with the power-law distribution for cancellation times, we propose an innovative approach to modeling order imbalance in financial markets. We extend this model to a broader context, illustrating its applicability to opinion dynamics in social systems where opinions have a finite lifespan. This proposed model exemplifies a stochastic time series characterized by stationary increments and broken self-similarity. Consequently, it offers a novel framework for testing methods to evaluate long-range dependence in such time series.

9 pages, 2 figures, 1 table