Moderate Deviations of Triangle Counts in the Erdős-Rényi Random Graph : The Lower Tail
arXiv:2403.13792 · doi:10.1016/j.ejc.2025.104189
Abstract
Let be the number of triangles in a graph . In [14] and [25] (respectively) the following bounds were proved on the lower tail behaviour of triangle counts in the dense Erdős-Rényi random graphs : \[ \mathbb{P}\big(N_{\triangle}(G_m) \, < \, (1-δ)\mathbb{E}[N_{\triangle}(G_m)]\big) \,=\, \exp\left(-Θ\left(δ^2n^3\right)\right) \qquad \text{if } \] and \[ \mathbb{P}\big(N_{\triangle}(G_m) \, < \, (1-δ)\mathbb{E}[N_{\triangle}(G_m)]\big) \,=\, \exp\left(-Θ(δ^{2/3}n^2) \right) \qquad \text{if .} \] Neeman, Radin and Sadun [25] also conjectured that the probability should be of the form in the "missing interval" . We prove this conjecture. As part of our proof we also prove that some random graph statistics, related to degrees and codegrees, are normally distributed with high probability.