A Cox rate-and-state model for monitoring seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field

Abstract

To monitor the seismic hazard in the Groningen gas field, we modify the rate-and-state model that relates changes in pore pressure to induced seismic hazard by allowing for noise in pore pressure measurements and by explicitly taking into account gas production volumes. We analyse the first and second-moment structure of the resulting Cox process, propose an unbiased estimating equation approach for the unknown model parameters and derive the posterior distribution of the driving random measure. We use a parallel Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm for sampling from the posterior and to monitor the hazard.

arXiv commentIn the revision, we added an unbiased estimating equation for model parameters and a parallel Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm for sampling the hidden state variable. We applied and validated the model on data from the Groningen gas field