Modelling of the monthly global average temperature anomalies after the year 1900

Abstract

Two ways of parameterising the temporal dependence of the global average temperature anomalies after 1900 are put forth in this technical note. The models are fitted to the data of the Berkeley Earth Group (up to the end of 2023), after the application of corrections which translate the input so that its average value over the last five decades of the $19$-th century vanishes; as the corrections are evaluated separately for each month of the year, the seasonal effects are removed from the data. The results are given in a convenient form for use.

arXiv commentA few sentences, containing the string "bulk tendency" in the original version, were edited; that string was sometimes replaced by "central tendency", some other times simply by "temporal dependence". No other changes over the original version