Moments of primes in progressions to a large modulus

Abstract

Assuming a uniform $q$-variant of the prime $k$-tuple conjecture, we compute moments of the number of primes in arithmetic progressions to a large modulus $q$ as the residue classes vary. Consequently, depending on the size of $\phi (q)$, the prime count follows either a Gaussian or a Poisson distribution. In particular, the least prime in progressions follows an exponential distribution, with some unexpected discrepancies observed for smooth moduli.

arXiv comment25 pages, 4 figures; to appear in Forum Math