Pathways to explosive transitions in interacting contagion dynamics

Abstract

Yet often neglected, dynamical interdependencies between concomitant contagion processes can alter their intrinsic equilibria and bifurcations. A particular case of interest for disease control is the emergence of explosive transitions in epidemic dynamics coming from their interactions with other simultaneous processes. To address this problem, here we propose a framework coupling a standard epidemic dynamics with another contagion process, presenting a tunable parameter shaping the nature of its transitions. Our model retrieves well-known results in the literature, such as the existence of first-order transitions arising from the mutual cooperation of epidemics or the onset of explosive transitions when social contagions unidirectionally drive epidemics. We also reveal that negative feedback loops between simultaneous dynamical processes might suppress explosive phenomena, thus increasing systems robustness against external perturbations. Our results render a general perspective towards finding different pathways to explosive phenomena from the interaction of contagion processes.

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• One pathogen does not an epidemic make: A review of interacting contagions, diseases, beliefs, and stories
• Superexponential growth of epidemics in networks with cliques