paper

A geometric analysis of the SIRS compartmental model with fast information and misinformation spreading

arXiv:2311.06351 · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115104

Abstract

We propose a novel slow-fast SIRS compartmental model with demography, by coupling a slow disease spreading model and a fast information and misinformation spreading model. Beside the classes of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals of a common SIRS model, here we define three new classes related to the information spreading model, e.g. unaware individuals, misinformed individuals and individuals who are skeptical to disease-related misinformation. Under our assumptions, the system evolves on two time scales. We completely characterize its asymptotic behaviour with techniques of Geometric Singular Perturbation Theory (GSPT). We exploit the time scale separation to analyse two lower dimensional subsystem separately. First, we focus on the analysis of the fast dynamics and we find three equilibrium point which are feasible and stable under specific conditions. We perform a theoretical bifurcation analysis of the fast system to understand the relations between these three equilibria when varying specific parameters of the fast system. Secondly, we focus on the evolution of the slow variables and we identify three branches of the critical manifold, which are described by the three equilibria of the fast system. We fully characterize the slow dynamics on each branch. Moreover, we show how the inclusion of (mis)information spread may negatively or positively affect the evolution of the epidemic, depending on whether the slow dynamics evolves on the second branch of the critical manifold, related to the skeptical-free equilibrium or on the third one, related to misinformed-free equilibrium, respectively. We conclude with numerical simulations which showcase our analytical results.

28 pages, 8 figures, 1 table

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