Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Flexible Survival Densities with Importance Sampling

Abstract

Survival analysis is a widely-used technique for analyzing time-to-event data in the presence of censoring. In recent years, numerous survival analysis methods have emerged which scale to large datasets and relax traditional assumptions such as proportional hazards. These models, while being performant, are very sensitive to model hyperparameters including: (1) number of bins and bin size for discrete models and (2) number of cluster assignments for mixture-based models. Each of these choices requires extensive tuning by practitioners to achieve optimal performance. In addition, we demonstrate in empirical studies that: (1) optimal bin size may drastically differ based on the metric of interest (e.g., concordance vs brier score), and (2) mixture models may suffer from mode collapse and numerical instability. We propose a survival analysis approach which eliminates the need to tune hyperparameters such as mixture assignments and bin sizes, reducing the burden on practitioners. We show that the proposed approach matches or outperforms baselines on several real-world datasets.

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