On the fixation probability of an advantageous allele in a population with skewed offspring distribution

Abstract

Consider an advantageous allele that arises in a haploid population of size $N$ evolving in continuous time according to a skewed reproduction mechanism, which generates under neutrality genealogies lying in the domain of attraction of a Beta$(2-\alpha ,\alpha )$-coalescent for $\alpha \in (1,2)$. We prove in a setting of moderate selection that the fixation probability ${\pi }_N$ of the advantageous allele is asymptotically equal to ${\alpha }^{1/(\alpha -1)}{s}_N^{1/(\alpha -1)}$ , where $s_N$ is the selection strength of the advantageous allele. Our proof uses duality with a suitable $\Lambda$-ancestral selection graph.

22 pages, replaced with revised version, including small changes