TraCE: Trajectory Counterfactual Explanation Scores

Abstract

Counterfactual explanations, and their associated algorithmic recourse, are typically leveraged to understand, explain, and potentially alter a prediction coming from a black-box classifier. In this paper, we propose to extend the use of counterfactuals to evaluate progress in sequential decision making tasks. To this end, we introduce a model-agnostic modular framework, TraCE (Trajectory Counterfactual Explanation) scores, which is able to distill and condense progress in highly complex scenarios into a single value. We demonstrate TraCE's utility across domains by showcasing its main properties in two case studies spanning healthcare and climate change.

10 pages, 4 figures, appendix