Transition from time-variant to static networks: timescale separation in NIMFA SIS epidemics

Abstract

We extend the N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (NIMFA) for the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) epidemiological process to time-varying networks. Processes on time-varying networks are often analysed under the assumption that the process and network evolution happen on different timescales. This approximation is called timescale separation. We investigate timescale separation between disease spreading and topology updates of the network. We introduce the transition times $\underline{\mathrm{T}}(r)$ and $\overline{\mathrm{T}}(r)$ as the boundaries between the intermediate regime and the annealed (fast changing network) and quenched (static network) regimes, respectively, for a fixed accuracy tolerance $r$. By analysing the convergence of static NIMFA processes, we analytically derive upper and lower bounds for $\overline{\mathrm{T}}(r)$. Our results provide insights/bounds on the time of convergence to the steady state of the static NIMFA SIS process. We show that, under our assumptions, the upper-transition time $\overline{\mathrm{T}}(r)$ is almost entirely determined by the basic reproduction number $R_0$ of the network. The value of the upper-transition time $\overline{\mathrm{T}}(r)$ around the epidemic threshold is large, which agrees with the current understanding that some real-world epidemics cannot be approximated with the aforementioned timescale separation.

arXiv comment20 pages, 13 figures

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