Counting integral points on symmetric varieties with applications to arithmetic statistics

Abstract

In this article, we combine Bhargava's geometry-of-numbers methods with the dynamical point-counting methods of Eskin--McMullen and Benoist--Oh to develop a new technique for counting integral points on symmetric varieties lying within fundamental domains for coregular representations. As applications, we study the distribution of the $2$-torsion subgroup of the class group in thin families of cubic number fields, as well as the distribution of the $2$-Selmer groups in thin families of elliptic curves over $\mathbb{Q}$. For example, our results suggest that the existence of a generator of the ring of integers with small norm has an increasing effect on the average size of the $2$-torsion subgroup of the class group, relative to the Cohen--Lenstra predictions.

44 pages, final version, to appear in Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society