Markov-modulated model for landing flow dynamics: An ordinal analysis validation
arXiv:2302.02702 · doi:10.1063/5.0134848
Abstract
Air transportation is a complex system characterised by a plethora of interactions at multiple temporal and spatial scales; as a consequence, even simple dynamics like sequencing aircraft for landing can lead to the appearance of emergent behaviours, which are both difficult to control and detrimental to operational efficiency. We propose a model, based on a modulated Markov jitter, to represent ordinal pattern properties of real landing operations in European airports. The parameters of the model are tuned by minimising the distance between the probability distributions of ordinal patterns generated by the real and synthetic sequences, as estimated by the Permutation Jensen-Shannon Distance. We show that the correlation between consecutive hours in the landing flow changes between airports, and that it can be interpreted as a metric of efficiency. We further compare the dynamics pre and post COVID-19, showing how this has changed beyond what can be attributed to a simple reduction of traffic. We finally draw some operational conclusions, and discuss the applicability of these findings in a real operational environment.
arXiv comment12 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables
References in corpus (9)
- Time lagged ordinal partition networks for capturing dynamics of continuous dynamical systems
- Inferring long memory processes in the climate network via ordinal pattern analysis
- An analysis of high-frequency cryptocurrencies prices dynamics using permutation-information-theory quantifiers
- Forbidden patterns in financial time series
- 20 years of ordinal patterns: Perspectives and challenges
- Detection of time reversibility in time series by ordinal patterns analysis
- Permutation Jensen-Shannon distance: A versatile and fast symbolic tool for complex time series analysis
- Differentiating resting brain states using ordinal symbolic analysis
- Persistence and Stochastic Periodicity in the Intensity Dynamics of a Fiber Laser During the Transition to Optical Turbulence