A Bayesian treatment of the German tank problem

Abstract

The German tank problem has an interesting historical background and is an engaging problem of statistical estimation for the classroom. The objective is to estimate the size of a population of tanks inscribed with sequential serial numbers, from a random sample. In this tutorial article, we outline the Bayesian approach to the German tank problem, (i) whose solution assigns a probability to each tank population size, thereby quantifying uncertainty, and (ii) which provides an opportunity to incorporate prior information and/or beliefs about the tank population size into the solution. We illustrate with an example. Finally, we survey problems in other contexts that resemble the German tank problem.

- fix eqn. 16 which should start at n'=k, not n'=0. - small tuning of writing. - make x-axis labels in Fig. 1 exactly consistent wording