Falsifiable analog model predictions of $W$ mass in CDF II and ATLAS

Abstract

The CDF II measurement of $W$ boson mass is at significant ($6.9\sigma$) tension with the Standard Model, and moderate ($4.0\sigma$) tension with recent results from ATLAS. Any attempt to interpret this as a signature of new physics requires high-precision, robust, falsifiable predictions. The Classical Analogue to the Standard Model In pseudo-Riemannian spacetime (CASMIR) is an analogue model predicting $W$ and $Z$ boson masses of $80.3587(22)\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ and $91.1877(35)\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ respectively. During baryon collisions satisfying $\sqrt{s}<3.09\mathrm{TeV}$, CASMIR predicts a color-mediated enhancement of $W$ and $Z$ boson masses, becoming $80.4340(22)\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ and $91.1922(35)\mathrm{GeV}/c^2$ respectively. The unenhanced masses are consistent with ATLAS data collected at $\sqrt{s}=7\mathrm{TeV}$, and the enhanced masses are consistent with CDF II data collected at $\sqrt{s}=1.96\mathrm{TeV}$. According to CASMIR, operation of the LHC at centre-of-mass energies small compared with $3.09\mathrm{TeV}$ but large enough for $W$ boson formation should permit ATLAS to replicate the result from CDF II.

arXiv comment44 pages, 6 figures. Added discussion of effects on $W$ and $Z$ boson emission cross-sections. Updated calculated Higgs mass in Appendix A

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