Assessment of global warming in Al Buraimi, sultanate of Oman based on statistical analysis of NASA POWER data over 39 years, and testing the reliability of NASA POWER against meteorological measurements

Abstract

We performed a number of statistical analysis methods on the historical data for the air temperature at 2 m above the ground and its range, as reported by the database of NASA known as POWER, which stands for Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources. The point of analysis is the University of Buraimi, located in Al Buraimi Governate, in the Northwest of the Sultanate of Oman, near its border with United Arab Emirates (UAE). The data is in the form of a value per day, for every day in the year. The data analyzed span the period from January 3rd, 1981 (earliest day available) to December 31st, 2019 (latest end-of-year available). The statistical analysis methods include: simple linear regression, F-test: two-sample for variances, analysis of variance (ANOVA): single factor, and t-test: two-sample assuming equal variances (pooled). The results show that the mean of the local 2-meter air temperature is increasing at a rate of about 0.039 °C per year, starting from an estimated value of 27.4 °C in 1980. For the standard deviation of the 2-meter air temperature, and the mean and standard deviation of its range; although a linear regression analysis suggests a decline over time, the regression coefficient is not significant. On the other hand, the analysis of variance for the 9 years 1981, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2019 suggests existence of statistical difference among them collectively, for the 2-meter air temperature and its range. In the second part of this work, NASA POWER data for the air temperature at 2 m above the ground, the atmospheric pressure, the relative humidity at 2 m above the ground, and the daily precipitation were compared with recorded sensor measurements at Manah meteorological station, located in Al Dakhiliyah Governate, in the Northeast of the Sultanate of Oman over all days of years 2011, 2012, 2015, and 2016.

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