On SIR-type epidemiological models and population heterogeneity effects
arXiv:2210.11342 · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2023.128928
Abstract
In this paper we elaborate on homogeneous and heterogeneous SIR-type epidemiological models. We find an unexpected correspondence between the epidemic trajectory of a transmissible disease in a homogeneous SIR-type model and radial null geodesics in the Schwarzschild spacetime. We also discuss modeling of population heterogeneity effects by considering both a one- and two-parameter gamma-distributed function for the initial susceptibility distribution, and deriving the associated herd immunity threshold. We furthermore describe how mitigation measures can be taken into account by model fitting.
arXiv comment16 pages, 6 figures
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