Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton

Enrique C. Gabrick; Paulo R. Protachevicz; Antonio M. Batista; Kelly C. Iarosz; Silvio L. T. de Souza; Alexandre C. L. Almeida; José D. Szezech; Michele Mugnaine; Iberê L. Caldas

doi:10.1016/j.physa.2022.127258

paper

Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton

arXiv:2209.01022 · doi:10.1016/j.physa.2022.127258

Abstract

In this work, to support decision making of immunisation strategies, we propose the inclusion of two vaccination doses in the SEIR model considering a stochastic cellular automaton. We analyse three different scenarios of vaccination: $i) u n l imi t e dd oses, (ii) l imi t e dd oses in t os u sce pt ib l e in d i v i d u a l s, an d (iii) l imi t e dd osesr an d o m l y d i s t r ib u t e d o v er a l l in d i v i d u a l s . O u r r es u l t ss ug g es tt ha tt h e n u mb er o f v a cc ina t i o n s an d t im e t os t a r tt h e v a cc ina t i o ni s m or er e l e v an tt han t h e v a cc in ee f f i c a cy, d e l a y b e tw ee n t h e f i r s t an d seco n dd oses, an dd e l a y b e tw ee n v a cc ina t e d g r o u p s . T h esce na r i o (i) s h o w s t ha tt h eso l u t i o n c an co n v er g ee a r l y t o a d i se a se - f r eee q u i l ib r i u m f or a f r a c t i o n o f in d i v i d u a l s v a cc ina t e d w i t h t h e f i r s t d ose . I n t h esce na r i o (ii), f e w tw o v a cc ina t i o n d oses d i v i d e d in t o a s ma l l n u mb er o f a ppl i c a t i o n sr e d u ce t h e n u mb er o f in f ec t e d p eo pl e m or e t hanin t o man y a ppl i c a t i o n s . I na dd i t i o n, t h er e i s a l o w w a s t eo f d oses f or t h e f i r s t a ppl i c a t i o nan d anin cr e a seo f t h e w a s t e in t h eseco n dd ose . T h esce na r i o (iii) p r ese n t s anin cr e a se in t h e w a s t eo f d oses f r o m t h e f i r s tt oseco n d a ppl i c a t i o n s m or e t han t h esce na r i o$ (ii)$. In the scenario (iii), the total of wasted doses increases linearly with the number of applications. Furthermore, the number of effective doses in the application of consecutive groups decays exponentially overtime.

Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton

Abstract

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