A simple and intuitive method to calculate $R_0$ in complex epidemic models

Carlos Hernandez-Suarez; Osval Montesinos Lopez

paper

A simple and intuitive method to calculate $R_{0}$ in complex epidemic models

arXiv:2208.11509

Abstract

Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, $R_{0}$ , which is the average number of infections caused by an individual that is introduced in a population of susceptibles. Finding a mathematical expression for $R_{0}$ is important because it allows to analyze the effect of the different parameters in the model on $R_{0}$ so that we can act on them to keep $R_{0} < 1$ , so that the epidemic fades out. In this work we show how to calculate $R_{0}$ in complicated epidemic models by using only basic concepts of Markov chains.

PDF has 26 pages and contains 13 figures

A simple and intuitive method to calculate R0​ in complex epidemic models

Abstract

A simple and intuitive method to calculate $R_{0}$ in complex epidemic models