Nonstationary Continuum-Armed Bandit Strategies for Automated Trading in a Simulated Financial Market

Abstract

We approach the problem of designing an automated trading strategy that can consistently profit by adapting to changing market conditions. This challenge can be framed as a Nonstationary Continuum-Armed Bandit (NCAB) problem. To solve the NCAB problem, we propose PRBO, a novel trading algorithm that uses Bayesian optimization and a ``bandit-over-bandit'' framework to dynamically adjust strategy parameters in response to market conditions. We use Bristol Stock Exchange (BSE) to simulate financial markets containing heterogeneous populations of automated trading agents and compare PRBO with PRSH, a reference trading strategy that adapts strategy parameters through stochastic hill-climbing. Results show that PRBO generates significantly more profit than PRSH, despite having fewer hyperparameters to tune. The code for PRBO and performing experiments is available online open-source (https://github.com/HarmoniaLeo/PRZI-Bayesian-Optimisation).

arXiv commentCamera ready version accepted for publication at 35th European Modeling & Simulation Symposium (EMSS), Sep. 2023, Athens, Greece