paper

Comparison of solar activity proxies: eigen vectors versus averaged sunspot numbers

arXiv:2207.14708 · doi:10.1093/mnras/stad1001

Abstract

We attempt to establish links between a summary curve, or modulus summary curve, MSC, of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) derived from Principal Component Analysis, with the averaged sunspot numbers (SSN). The comparison of MSC with the whole set of SSN reveals rather close correspondence of cycle timings, duration and maxima times for the cycles 12- 24, 6,7 and -4,-3. Although, in 1720-1760 and 1830-1860 there are discrepancies in maximum amplitudes of the cycles, durations and shifts of the maximum times between MSC and SSN curves. The MSC curve reveals pretty regular cycles with double maxima (cycles 1-4), triple maximum amplitude distributions for cycles 0 and 1 and for cycles -1 and -2 just before Maunder minimum. The MSC cycles in 1700-1750 reveal smaller maximal magnitudes in cycles -3 to 0 and in cycle 1-4 than the amplitudes of SSN, while cycles -2 to 0 have reversed maxima with minima with SSN. Close fitting of MSC or Bayesian models to the sunspot curve distorts the occurrences of either Maunder Minimum or/and modern grand solar minimum (2020-2053). These discrepancies can be caused by poor observations and by difference in solar magnetic fields responsible for these proxies. The dynamo simulations of toroidal and poloidal magnetic field in the grand solar cycle (GSC) from 1650 until 2050 demonstrate the clear differences between their amplitude variations during the GSC. The use of eigen vectors of SBMF can provide additional information to that derived from SSN that can be useful for understanding solar activity.

arXiv comment23 pages, 9 figure

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