Point sources of ultra-high-energy neutrinos: minimalist predictions for near-future discovery

Abstract

The discovery of ultra-high-energy neutrinos, with energies above 100 PeV, may soon be within reach of upcoming neutrino telescopes. We present a robust framework to compute the statistical significance of point-source discovery via the detection of neutrino multiplets. We apply it to the radio array component of IceCube-Gen2. To identify a source with $3\sigma$ significance, IceCube-Gen2 will need to detect a triplet, at best, and an octuplet, at worst, depending on whether the source is steady-state or transient, and on its position in the sky. The discovery, or absence, of sources significantly constrains the properties of the source population.

Submission to SciPost Phys. Proc., presented at the 21st International Symposium on Very High Energy Cosmic Ray Interactions (ISVHECRI 2022)