Disaggregating the Increase in Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Kossin et al. (PNAS 2020)

Abstract

Kossin et al. (2020) successfully test (over the last four decades) the prediction of climate-change models that conditional tropical cyclone intensity (the frequency of major [category 3-5] cyclones divided by the frequency of all cyclones) should increase. Yet, the highest relative proportional increase in incidence occurred in category 3 cyclones. The highest relative proportional decrease occurred in category 5 cyclones. This inference is not due to different treatment of measurement error. It is plausibly due to lower power for relatively rarer category 5 cyclones.