Non-parametric power-law surrogates

Abstract

Power-law distributions are essential in computational and statistical investigations of extreme events and complex systems. The usual technique to generate power-law distributed data is to first infer the scale exponent $\alpha$ using the observed data of interest and then sample from the associated distribution. This approach has important limitations because it relies on a fixed $\alpha$ (e.g., it has limited applicability in testing the {\it family} of power-law distributions) and on the hypothesis of independent observations (e.g., it ignores temporal correlations and other constraints typically present in complex systems data). Here we propose a constrained surrogate method that overcomes these limitations by choosing uniformly at random from a set of sequences exactly as likely to be observed under a discrete power-law as the original sequence (i.e., regardless of $\alpha$) and by showing how additional constraints can be imposed in the sequence (e.g., the Markov transition probability between states). This non-parametric approach involves redistributing observed prime factors to randomize values in accordance with a power-law model but without restricting ourselves to independent observations or to a particular $\alpha$. We test our results in simulated and real data, ranging from the intensity of earthquakes to the number of fatalities in disasters.

16 pages, 12 figures (main manuscript); 8 pages, 7 figures (supplemental material); For code, see https://github.com/JackMurdochMoore/power-law

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