Withdrawal Success Estimation
arXiv:2202.02994 · doi:10.1142/S0219024923500140
Abstract
Given a geometric Levy alpha-stable wealth process, a log-Levy alpha-stable lower bound is constructed for the terminal wealth of a regular investing schedule. Using a transformation, the lower bound is applied to a schedule of withdrawals occurring after an initial investment. As a result, an upper bound is described on the probability to complete a given schedule of withdrawals. For withdrawals of a constant amount at equidistant times, necessary conditions are given on the initial investment and parameters of the wealth process such that withdrawals can be made with 95% confidence. When the initial investment is in the S&P Composite Index and , then the initial investment must be at least times the amount of each withdrawal.
arXiv comment24 pages, 8 figures