Do new investment strategies take existing strategies' returns -- An investigation into agent-based models
arXiv:2202.01423 · doi:10.1109/BESC53957.2021.9635097
Abstract
Commodity trading advisors (CTAs), who mainly trade commodity futures, showed good returns in the 2000s. However, since the 2010's, they have not performed very well. One possible reason of this phenomenon is the emergence of short-term reversal traders (STRTs) who prey on CTAs for profit. In this study, I built an artificial market model by adding a CTA agent (CTAA) and STRT agent (STRTA) to a prior model and investigated whether emerging STRTAs led to a decrease in CTAA revenue to determine whether STRTs prey on CTAs for profit. To the contrary, my results showed that a CTAA and STRTA are more likely to trade and earn more when both exist. Therefore, it is possible that they have a mutually beneficial relationship.
The 8th International Conference on Behavioral, Economic, and Socio-Cultural Computing (BESC 2021). arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2202.00831