Questioning the use of global estimates of reproduction numbers, with implications for policy

Abstract

The basic reproduction number, $R_0$ is an important and widely used concept in the study of infectious diseases. We briefly review the recent trend of calculating the average of various $R_0$ estimates in systematic reviews aimed at estimating the basic reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2, and discuss the drawbacks and implications of using such averaging methods. Additionally, we argue that even a theoretically grounded approach such as next generation matrix could have practical impediments in its use. More generally, the practice of associating an infectious disease with a single value of $R_0$ is problematic, when the disease can, in fact have different reproduction numbers in various populations.

5 pages, 3 figures