Long-term Dynamical Stability in the Outer Solar System I: The Regular and Chaotic Evolution of the 34 Largest Trans-Neptunian Objects

Abstract

We carried out an extensive analysis of the stability of the outer solar system, making use of the frequency analysis technique over short-term integrations of nearly a hundred thousand test particles, as well as a statistical analysis of 200, 1 Gyr long numerical simulations, which consider the mutual perturbations of the giant planets and the 34 largest trans-Neptunian objects (we have called all 34 objects ``dwarf planets'', DPs, even if probably only the largest of them are true DPs). From the frequency analysis we produced statistical diffusion maps for a wide region of the $a$-$e$ phase-space plane; we also present the average diffusion time for orbits as a function of perihelion. We later turned our attention to the 34 DPs making an individualized analysis for each of them and producing a first approximation of their future stability. From the 200 distinct realizations of the orbital evolution of the 34 DPs, we classified the sample into three categories including 17 Stable, 11 Unstable, and 6 Resonant objects each; we also found that statistically, 2 objects from the sample will leave the trans-Neptunian region within the next Gyr, most likely being ejected from the solar system, but with a non-negligible probability of going inside the orbit of Neptune, either to collide with a giant planet or even falling to the inner solar system, where our simulations are no longer able to resolve their continuous evolution.

18 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in AJ

References in corpus (12)

• Origin and Evolution of Short-Period Comets
• The Scattered Disk as the source of the Jupiter Family comets
• The Size Distribution of Kuiper belt objects for D> 10 km
• The Formation of Jupiter's Diluted Core by a Giant Impact
• OSSOS VI. Striking Biases in the detection of large semimajor axis Trans-Neptunian Objects
• Producing Distant Planets by Mutual Scattering of Planetary Embryos
• A Search for Distant Solar System Bodies in the Region of Sedna
• The large Trans-Neptunian Object 2002 TC${}_{302}$ from combined stellar occultation, photometry and astrometry data
• Long-term Evolution and Stability of Saturnian Small Satellites: Aegaeon, Methone, Anthe, and Pallene
• Dynamics of Small Bodies in Orbits Between Jupiter and Saturn
• Analysing the region of the rings and small satellites of Neptune
• Giant Planets Can Act As Stabilizing Agents on Debris Disks