Testing the Goodwin Growth Cycles with Econophysics Approach in 2002-2019 Period in Turkey

Abstract

The Turkish economy between 2002-2019 period has been investigated within the econophysical approach. From the individual income data obtained from the Household Budget Survey, the Gompertz-Pareto distribution for each year and Goodwin cycle for the mentioned period have been obtained. For this period, in which thirteen elections were held under the single-party rule, it has been observed that the income distribution fits well with the Gompertz-Pareto distribution which shows the two-class structure of the Turkish economy. The variation of the threshold value $x_t$ (which separates these two classes) as well as Pareto coefficient have been obtained. Besides, Goodwin cycle has been observed within this period, centered at $(u,v)\cong (66.30,83.40)$ and a period of $T=18.30$ years. It has been concluded that these observations are consistent with the economic and social events experienced in the mentioned period.

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