Application of Adaptive Multilevel Splitting to High-Dimensional Dynamical Systems

Abstract

Stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems can undergo rapid transitions relative to the change in their forcing, for example due to the occurrence of multiple equilibrium solutions for a specific interval of parameters. In this paper, we modify one of the methods developed to compute probabilities of such transitions, Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Sampling (TAMS), to be able to apply it to high-dimensional systems. The key innovation is a projected time-stepping approach, which leads to a strong reduction in computational costs, in particular memory usage. The performance of this new implementation of TAMS is studied through an example of the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Circulation.

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Cited by in corpus (4)

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• Does rare, noise-induced, bypass transition in plane Couette flow bypass instantons ?
• Boosting Ensembles for Statistics of Tails at Conditionally Optimal Advance Split Times