On the probability that a binomial variable is at most its expectation

Abstract

Consider the probability that a binomial random variable Bi$(n,m/n)$ with integer expectation $m$ is at most its expectation. Chvátal conjectured that for any given $n$, this probability is smallest when $m$ is the integer closest to $2n/3$. We show that this holds when $n$ is large.

12 pages. v2: typos corrected