A modified age-structured SIR model for COVID-19 type viruses

Abstract

We present a modified age-structured SIR model based on known patterns of social contact and distancing measures within Washington, USA. We find that population age-distribution has a significant effect on disease spread and mortality rate, and contribute to the efficacy of age-specific contact and treatment measures. We consider the effect of relaxing restrictions across less vulnerable age-brackets, comparing results across selected groups of varying population parameters. Moreover, we analyze the mitigating effects of vaccinations and examine the effectiveness of age-targeted distributions. Lastly, we explore how our model can applied to other states to reflect social-distancing policy based on different parameters and metrics.

12 pages, 19 figures

References in corpus (3)

• Modeling strict age-targeted mitigation strategies for COVID-19
• Reactive Social distancing in a SIR model of epidemics such as COVID-19
• Racial Impact on Infections and Deaths due to COVID-19 in New York City