A Reanalysis of Public Galactic Bulge Gravitational Microlensing Events from OGLE-III and IV

Abstract

Modern surveys of gravitational microlensing events have progressed to detecting thousands per year. Surveys are capable of probing Galactic structure, stellar evolution, lens populations, black hole physics, and the nature of dark matter. One of the key avenues for doing this is studying the microlensing Einstein radius crossing time distribution ($t_E$). However, systematics in individual light curves as well as over-simplistic modeling can lead to biased results. To address this, we developed a model to simultaneously handle the microlensing parallax due to Earth's motion, systematic instrumental effects, and unlensed stellar variability with a Gaussian Process model. We used light curves for nearly 10,000 OGLE-III and IV Milky Way bulge microlensing events and fit each with our model. We also developed a forward model approach to infer the timescale distribution by forward modeling from the data rather than using point estimates from individual events. We find that modeling the variability in the baseline removes a source of significant bias in individual events, and previous analyses over-estimated the number of long timescale ($t_E>100$ days) events due to their over simplistic models ignoring parallax effects and stellar variability. We use our fits to identify hundreds of events that are likely black holes.

Submitted version, in review, 33 pages, 18 figures, MCMC posterior samples available by publisher after acceptance

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• Disentangling the Black Hole Mass Spectrum with Photometric Microlensing Surveys
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• Weighing the Darkness III: How Gaia Could, but Probably Won't, Astrometrically Detect Free-Floating Black Holes
• Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman