Analysis of infected population threshold exceedance in an SIR epidemiological model

Abstract

We consider an epidemiological SIR model and a positive threshold $M$. Using a parametric expression for the solution curve of the SIR model and the Lambert W function, we establish necessary and sufficient conditions on the basic reproduction number ${\mathcal{R}}_0$ to ensure that the infected population does not exceed the threshold $M$. We also propose and analyze different measures to quantify a possible threshold exceedance.

18 Pages, 9 Figures