Estimating Satellite Orbital Drag During Historical Magnetic Superstorms

Abstract

Understanding extreme space weather events is of paramount importance in efforts to protect technological systems in space and on the ground. Particularly in the thermosphere, the subsequent extreme magnetic storms can pose serious threats to low-Earth orbit (LEO) spacecraft by intensifying errors in orbit predictions. Extreme magnetic storms (minimum Dst $\le$ --250 nT) are extremely rare: only 7 events occurred during the era of spacecraft with high-level accelerometers such as CHAMP (CHAllenge Mini-satellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate experiment), and none with minimum Dst $\le$ --500 nT, here termed magnetic superstorms. Therefore, current knowledge of thermospheric mass density response to superstorms is very limited. Thus, in order to advance this knowledge, four known magnetic superstorms in history, i.e., events occurring before CHAMP's and GRACE's commission times, with complete datasets, are used to empirically estimate density enhancements and subsequent orbital drag. The November 2003 magnetic storm (minimum Dst = --422 nT), the most extreme event observed by both satellites, is used as the benchmark event. Results show that, as expected, orbital degradation is more severe for the most intense storms. Additionally, results clearly point out that the time duration of the storm is strongly associated with storm-time orbital drag effects, being as important as or even more important than storm intensity itself. The most extreme storm-time decays during CHAMP/GRACE-like sample satellite orbits estimated for the March 1989 magnetic superstorm show that long-lasting superstorms can have highly detrimental consequences for the orbital dynamics of satellites in LEO.

arXiv comment25 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables

References in corpus (8)

• GW190425: Observation of a Compact Binary Coalescence with Total Mass $\sim 3.4M_{\odot }$
• The Low Earth Orbit Satellite Population and Impacts of the SpaceX Starlink Constellation
• Magnetic Coordinate Systems
• Temporal and Spatial Evolutions of a Large Sunspot Group and Great Auroral Storms around the Carrington Event in 1859
• Satellite orbital drag during magnetic storms
• The Extreme Space Weather Event in 1903 October/November: An Outburst from the Quiet Sun
• Thermosphere and geomagnetic response to interplanetary coronal mass ejections observed by ACE and GRACE: Statistical results
• Multiple satellite analysis of the Earth's thermosphere and interplanetary magnetic field variations due to ICME/CIR events during 2003-2015

Cited by in corpus (5)

• The 10 October 2024 geomagnetic storm may have caused the premature reentry of a Starlink satellite
• The current state and future directions of modeling thermosphere density enhancements during extreme magnetic storms
• South American auroral reports during the Carrington storm
• Tracking Reentries of Starlink Satellites During the Rising Phase of Solar Cycle 25
• The Extreme Space Weather Event in February/March 1941