Compartmental model with loss of immunity: analysis and parameters estimation for Covid-19

Abstract

The outbreak of Covid-19 led the world to an unprecedent health and economical crisis. In an attempt to responde to this emergency researchers worldwide are intensively studying the Covid-19 pandemic dynamics. In this work, a SIRSi compartmental model is proposed, which is a modification of the known classical SIR model. The proposed SIRSi model considers differences in the immunization within a population, and the possibility of unreported or asymptomatic cases. The model is adjusted to three major cities of São Paulo State, in Brazil, namely, São Paulo, Santos and Campinas, providing estimates on the duration and peaks of the outbreak.

Second version. Under review