Bayesian Updating and Sequential Testing: Overcoming Inferential Limitations of Screening Tests

Abstract

Bayes' Theorem confers inherent limitations on the accuracy of screening tests as a function of disease prevalence. We have shown in previous work that a testing system can tolerate significant drops in prevalence, up until a certain well-defined point known as the $prevalence$ $threshold$, below which the reliability of a positive screening test drops precipitously. Herein, we establish a mathematical model to determine whether sequential testing overcomes the aforementioned Bayesian limitations and thus improves the reliability of screening tests. We show that for a desired positive predictive value of $\rho$ that approaches $k$, the number of positive test iterations $n_i$ needed is: $n_i={\lim }_{\rho \to k}\lceil \frac{ln\left[\frac{\rho (\varphi -1)}{\varphi (\rho -1)}\right]}{ln\left[\frac{a}{1-b}\right]}\rceil$ where $n_i$ = number of testing iterations necessary to achieve $\rho$, the desired positive predictive value, a = sensitivity, b = specificity, $\varphi$ = disease prevalence and $k$ = constant. Based on the aforementioned derivation, we provide reference tables for the number of test iterations needed to obtain a $\rho (\varphi )$ of 50, 75, 95 and 99$\%$ as a function of various levels of sensitivity, specificity and disease prevalence.