paper

Modelling aerosol transport and virus exposure with numerical simulations in relation to SARS-CoV-2 transmission by inhalation indoors

arXiv:2005.12612 · doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2020.104866

Abstract

We provide research findings on the physics of aerosol dispersion relevant to the hypothesized aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We utilize physics-based modeling at different levels of complexity, and literature on coronaviruses, to investigate the possibility of airborne transmission. The previous literature, our 0D-3D simulations by various physics-based models, and theoretical calculations, indicate that the typical size range of speech and cough originated droplets (d < 20microns) allows lingering in the air for O(1h) so that they could be inhaled. Consistent with the previous literature, numerical evidence on the rapid drying process of even large droplets, up to sizes O(100microns), into droplet nuclei/aerosols is provided. Based on the literature and the public media sources, we provide evidence that the infected individuals could have been exposed to aerosols/droplet nuclei by inhaling them in significant numbers e.g. O(100). By 3D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, we give examples on the transport and dilution of aerosols (d<20microns) over distances O(10m) in generic environments. We study susceptible and infected individuals in generic public places by Monte-Carlo modeling. The model accounts for the locally varying aerosol concentration levels which the susceptible accumulate via inhalation. The introduced concept, 'exposure time' to virus containing aerosols is proposed to complement the traditional 'safety distance' thinking. We show that the exposure time to inhale O(100) aerosols could range from O(1s) to O(1min) or even to O(1h) depending on the situation. The Monte Carlo analysis provides clear quantitative insight to the exposure time in different public indoor environments.

Preprint, 58 pages, 15 figures

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