The short-term seasonal analyses between atmospheric environment and COVID-19 in epidemic areas of Cities in Australia, South Korea, and Italy

Abstract

The impact of the outbreak of COVID-19 on health has been widely concerned. Disease risk assessment, prediction, and early warning have become a significant research field. Previous research suggests that there is a relationship between air quality and the disease. This paper investigated the impact of the atmospheric environment on the basic reproduction number (R${}_0$) in Australia, South Korea, and Italy by using atmospheric environment data, confirmed case data, and the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) model based on Quasi-Poisson regression. The results show that the air temperature and humidity have lag and persistence on short-term R${}_0$, and seasonal factors have an apparent decorating effect on R${}_0$. PM${}_{10}$ is the primary pollutant that affects the excess morbidity rate. Moreover, O${}_3$, PM${}_{2.5}$, and SO${}_2$ as perturbation factors have an apparent cumulative effect. These results present beneficial knowledge for correlation between environment and COVID-19, which guiding prospective analyses of disease data.